In the debate about the impact of automation and agentic AI on the American workforce, there are two camps: those sounding the alarm on massive job displacement and those who want to know which specific roles will be eliminated. The difference is stark. Vague warnings will likely only lead to panic and bad policy responses. But, as a country, if we know which jobs are at risk, we can prepare, retrain, and adapt.

Already, we are seeing the first wave of losses in low-end jobs as seasonal workforces are replaced by autonomous machines and restaurants are becoming automated. But the next wave will hit where people least expect it—the middle-income bracket.

Why? Because the employment landscape in America is very different from anywhere else in the world. We cannot compete with markets of billions of people whose labor costs a fraction of ours, but we can compete on productivity. That’s where the middle layer becomes vulnerable, but it’s also exactly where we have the advantage.